How to Test Tour Prices: Data-Driven Tour Pricing
This is part 8 of our Pricing Series. You can watch the whole series here, or start with part 1 here.
Uber’s data scientists were consistently shocked by how much they had to increase prices before people actually changed their behavior. When they implemented surge pricing after sporting events, small price bumps of a few dollars barely moved the needle. People kept booking rides, and drivers didn’t rush to those high-demand areas. That’s why surge pricing often feels so jarring – sometimes you’re paying double for the same ride. This finding reveals something crucial about human psychology and pricing that most tour operators completely miss. We’re often so worried about testing “big” price increases that we make tiny adjustments that don’t actually tell us anything meaningful about our pricing power.
If you’re consistently selling out your weekend tours weeks in advance, you’re probably leaving serious money on the table. And if you’re running below 50% occupancy, you might need strategic adjustments to fill those seats.
Let’s keep this simple and focus on leveraging data you probably already have to make better pricing decisions.
Essential Metrics You Should Be Tracking
Your booking software is one of the most compelling reasons to use technology in your tour business. It’s going to help you analyze data and run pricing tests effectively. Here are the key metrics we want to monitor:
Revenue per tour is usually shown automatically in your booking software’s revenue reports. Track this monthly and compare year over year, especially if you’re running a seasonal business.
Occupancy rate or capacity utilization shows what percentage of your available seats are filled. This is the key insight that most operators miss – if you’re selling out weeks in advance, you’re actually losing money. Ideally, you’d sell your last ticket just as the booking window closes. Selling out early means you might be priced too low, and customers seeing “sold out” or “unavailable” indicates you’re likely losing revenue.
How can you leverage this information? If you’re consistently selling out two or three weeks early on weekends, consider increasing prices by 15 to 20%. If you’re seeing above 80% occupancy, play around with some test price increases. If numbers are going the other direction with below 50% occupancy, consider some conditional discounting or promotions.
Booking conversion rate can be tracked through your booking software or Google Analytics goals to monitor website visitors and see what percentage ultimately complete bookings. This conversion rate information becomes important as you test prices. If you see a stable conversion rate as you lift prices, you probably have pricing power. Conversely, if you see a declining conversion rate after a significant price increase but still have steady traffic, you might be seeing price resistance.
Average order value matters if you’re adding upsells or bundling tours with discounts – this is part of your pricing strategy. When your average order value ticks upward, it’s a great sign that those upsells, bundles, and packages are converting.
Channel performance is especially important for tour operators leveraging online travel agents like Viator, GetYourGuide, and others. You want to tease out this information to better understand your true customer acquisition costs.
Simple Pricing Experiments You Can Run
There are two core ways to think about pricing tests.
The first is a time period comparison where you might have pricing A in one month and compare it to pricing B in another month. You’re comparing metrics like average order value, revenue generated within that period, and conversion rates. For seasonal businesses, it might be more useful to do year-over-year comparisons rather than month-to-month, since you know there will be seasonal demand changes.
The second approach is an A/B test. Instead of comparing time periods, 50% of traffic coming to a particular tour page sees pricing A, and the other 50% sees pricing B. This is usually done inside your booking software when people click “Check Availability” – half see one price, half see another. Then you analyze the same key metrics: conversion rate, average order value, and so on.
Simple Testing Best Practices
Test only one price change on one product at a time. If you’re making too many changes at once, it’s hard to interpret the data.
Track only a handful of things that matter most – total bookings, total revenue, or conversion rates before, during, and after the test.
Run tests long enough – think minimum 20 or 30 completed bookings or sufficient conversions to draw meaningful conclusions. You can quickly Google “statistical significance” if you want to explore this topic further.
Know when to stop. If you see bookings drop significantly, like 25 or 30%, it’s okay to end tests early. You may want to avoid testing during peak revenue periods that are really important for your business, where you don’t want to lose potential income during your busiest times.
Focus on high-impact changes. Test pricing adjustments that could meaningfully affect your annual revenue.
The Power of Guest Feedback
The quantitative data from Google Analytics and booking software tells only part of the story. Guest input can give you qualitative information about how changes impact their experience and likelihood to recommend your tour to others.
During testing, ask post-tour questions. Have your guides ask guests what they thought about the value of the tour or whether they’d recommend it to friends.
Consider email follow-ups with internal surveys during testing periods. Ask guests to rate the value for money of the tour between one and 10, or how likely they are to recommend the experience to a friend. Essentially, collect net promoter score data over different control groups or time periods.
Keep an eye on online reviews, looking for pricing-related comments. “Great value” means your pricing is probably on point. “Expensive, but worth it” means you might have room to increase. “Overpriced” or negative pricing comments require investigation – is it positioning or actual price resistance?
Look for patterns, not just individual comments. Sometimes you might find that few people mention price after a test increase, which could be a positive sign. Monitor your overall review scores on TripAdvisor or Google My Business to see if pricing changes impact your average rating.
When to Adjust Your Pricing
Consider testing price increases when you’re selling out or have occupancy consistently above 80%, when your booking conversion rate is stable or improving, when customer feedback is extremely positive and often mentions great value (indicating pricing power), or when competitors are raising their prices.
Consider promotions or strategic discounting when you have occupancy below 50%, when booking conversion is declining, when the competitive landscape has changed and competitors are significantly undercutting you, or when you’re seeing consistent negative feedback about value in online reviews.
How Much Should You Test?
People often ask for guidelines – should it be a 5% price increase, 25%, or 50%? What’s too much or too little? It’s hard to give general recommendations, but in most cases, tour business owners aren’t testing big enough price increases.
Remember that Uber story? The data scientists were consistently surprised at how much they had to increase prices to drive human behavior. If it was only a couple dollars more, they didn’t see drivers rushing over and didn’t see people canceling. That’s why surge pricing is often so shocking – sometimes you pay double.
Keep this in mind when testing weekend pricing. If you know you’re consistently selling out early, you probably have more pricing power than you think. You might need a price lift closer to 15% or 20% versus smaller 2.5% or 5% increases if you want to actually encourage people to shift to weekday bookings while still capturing those weekend customers who don’t have flexibility and still see the value.
Special Considerations for Multi-Day Tour Operators
Multi-day tours face unique challenges with pricing tests. You typically have lower booking volumes, so it’s harder to get statistically significant data. You also see longer booking windows, which means tests take longer because people need more time to make decisions.
This doesn’t mean you shouldn’t test pricing – it just means it’s more challenging.
Key metrics to monitor as a multi-day operator include revenue per departure (not just per guest), booking lead time patterns to understand when people book and how pricing might increase earlier bookings, upsells and add-ons performance, and customer lifetime value since there’s often increased likelihood of repeat bookings.
Smart pricing moves for multi-day operators include increasing prices for future similar departures if trips sell out early and often, strategic discounting like early bird incentives to get people to make deposits or pay balances earlier (so you can leverage that capital for more demand generation), and using wait lists aggressively as they’re valuable for pricing intelligence and measuring potential interest.
Creating a Testing Rhythm
Many small business owners aren’t doing enough pricing testing, consistently leaving money on the table. Consider creating a rhythm that happens monthly or quarterly. If monthly feels overwhelming, start quarterly.
Create a dashboard with key metrics from your booking software or Google Analytics. Look at test results and review customer feedback for patterns in qualitative or quantitative data related to particular pricing tests. Then plan for your next quarter – are there tours selling out too early? Seasonal pricing changes to experiment with? New variable pricing or special promotions to test?
Keep in mind that year-over-year comparisons often provide the best data.
Take Action on Your First Pricing Test
Look for areas where you see demand spikes – are you selling out early or often? Have you tested variable pricing?
Identify the key metrics that will help you decide if a pricing change was successful. Some might exist in your booking software; you might need to learn how to run reports for particular time periods. Decide what’s most important: total bookings, average order value, how early people book, or conversion rate.
Then execute your pricing test. It’s that simple.
Remember, it’s easy to change pricing. Sometimes we get hung up thinking it’s the end of the world, that this is our new pricing forever. If you test a 25% markup and it doesn’t work, bring those prices back down. Embrace that testing mindset and remember the stakes don’t have to be that high.



